NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 112319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

Today has shaped up to be nothing short of spectacular with sunny,
dry and warm weather. Unfortunately changes are on the way (see
discussion below).

We will only need to make some minor hourly grid adjustments based
on current observations and trends for this update.


Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

A warm and pleasant spring day is underway with a south breeze and
afternoon highs in the 80s. Low humidity is still in place which
will maintain elevated fire weather conditions west of I-35
through the rest of the afternoon. Overnight, a surface warm front
will lift northward through Central Texas, accompanied by areas
of low stratus and perhaps a bit of patchy fog. Lows will be much
warmer than this morning`s, possibly by as much as 15 degrees.

By tomorrow morning, a surface cold front (presently located in
southern KS) will arrive in northwest Texas. This boundary should
move southward very slowly through the day since it will be
devoid of a strong shortwave to drive it through the forecast
area. Veering southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary is expected
to draw a tongue of high theta-e air northward immediately ahead
of the cold front, resulting in a narrow corridor of strong
instability with MLCAPE values in the neighborhood of 2000 J/kg.
Depending on the extent of cloud cover ahead of the front,
sufficient insolation could eventually allow convective
temperatures to be reached despite some modest capping in place.
Convective initiation will also be dependent on whether
convergence near the front can solely provide strong enough ascent
for deep convection. If storms can develop along the front by
late afternoon or early evening, they would likely consist of a
supercellular storm mode with the potential to produce large hail.
The greatest chances would be after 5pm or so across our
southwestern zones roughly encompassing Comanche, Hamilton,
Gatesville, and Lampasas, but convection could conceivably extend
farther northeastward along the front depending on the erosion of
the capping inversion. "Chance" PoPs have been introduced into
the forecast during the late afternoon time period, and we`ll
begin advertising the potential for a couple strong or severe
storms mainly in our southwestern counties should this conditional
potential come to fruition. Rain/storm chances will persist into
the night along and behind the front as addressed in the long
term portion of the forecast.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021/
/Monday Night Onward/

A cooler and active period of weather is setting up across North
and Central Texas with chances of rain nearly every day over the
next week. The severe weather threat mentioned above in the short
term discussion will continue into the late Monday evening hours.
Hail and damaging winds will continue to be the primary threats
with these storms. Shortly after sunset, the cold front should
manage to push any ongoing storms out of our area, bringing an end
to the severe weather threat. However, isentropic ascent will
allow showers and thunderstorms to continue behind the front
through the overnight hours.

Upper level disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast
through the rest of the work week. The lift associated with these
disturbances combined with isentropic ascent will be sufficient
to develop showers and thunderstorms each day. Not everyone will
see rain this week, as it won`t be a total washout. However, it
would be wise to keep an umbrella handy. The severe weather
threat is low at this time, as instability will be limited.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures are expected throughout the week
with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.

Another cold front is expected to arrive late Friday into early
Saturday, although quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the
weekend forecast. This is especially true regarding temperatures
and rain chances both Saturday and Sunday. Latest guidance trended
a few degrees cooler, with temperatures remaining in the 60s and
70s over the weekend. The best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will likely be Friday/Friday night with the arrival
of the cold front. However, isolated to scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend. Rain
chances will continue into Monday with another cold front possible
early next week.



/00Z TAFs/

Pristine flying conditions will continue through most of the
night across North Texas with a clear sky and a south wind in the
10 to 14 knot range.

Low level moisture will increase from south to north overnight
as a warm front currently over deep South Texas lifts northward.
A period of temporary MVFR ceilings a couple hours after sunrise
is still possible across the Metroplex TAF sites (per the NAM
solution) with much better chances of MVFR or high end IFR
ceilings at Waco. Any low ceilings that do develop will lift and
scatter before midday ahead of a cold front. The cold front should
reach the Metroplex TAF sites between 20 and 22Z.

There is still a chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the cold front Monday afternoon. However, a cap of warm air
and a lack of significant large scale forcing may limit or prevent
storm formation until a shortwave arrives Monday evening.
Therefore, we will leave the mention of showers/storms out of
this TAF package except for the extended portion of the DFW TAF.

A south wind will prevail in the 10 to 15 knot range tonight
through Monday morning. FROPA and a northeast/north wind shift
should occur across the Metroplex TAF sites between 20Z and 22Z



Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  82  56  74  56 /   0  20  40  20  50
Waco                62  86  59  76  59 /   0  10  40  20  40
Paris               54  79  55  71  53 /   5  20  30  20  40
Denton              57  78  52  71  53 /   0  20  40  20  50
McKinney            56  79  55  72  54 /   0  20  40  20  50
Dallas              62  82  58  75  57 /   0  20  40  20  50
Terrell             56  81  57  73  56 /   0  10  30  20  50
Corsicana           58  85  60  76  58 /   0   5  30  20  40
Temple              62  87  59  76  59 /   0  10  30  20  40
Mineral Wells       57  79  52  71  53 /   0  10  40  20  50




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion