NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 180000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

/Through Tomorrow Night/

After a nice day with spring-like temperatures and dry conditions,
cold and rainy conditions will return. The cold front is
currently making its way across the northwestern counties this
afternoon, and a northwest to southeast progression is expected
through tonight.

The colder air will take some time to spill across the region, and
overnight lows will range from the mid 40s across the northwest to
low 60s across the southeast. Most of the area will remain rain-
free through midnight, with the exception being mainly across
northeastern parts of the region, and then the eastern half of the
region after midnight. While the predominant type of activity
should be showers, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
due to the presence of weak instability ahead of the cold front.

The colder air will move in beginning tomorrow morning, and
temperatures will be 15-20 degrees colder than today. Isentropic
ascent will increase and result in the development of showers,
with the best potential for scattered showers mainly across
Central and East Texas. Some isolated showers are possible across
North Texas, but the better rain chances will come later during
the week. Otherwise, breezy northerly winds and overcast skies are
expected across all North and Central Texas on Tuesday. Rain
chances will continue tomorrow night across Central and East
Texas. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s along the Red
River to mid 40s across Central Texas.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/
/Tuesday night through early next week/

The cold front is expected to clear our southern border near
sunset tomorrow evening. Warm advection overtop the shallow, cold
airmass will quickly begin behind the front, leaving a lingering
area of showers in far southern counties. This region of
overrunning precipitation will spread northward throughout the day
Wednesday, becoming the most widespread by Wednesday evening. The
highest rainfall totals are expected in Central Texas counties
where most areas will see 1.5 to 2 inches over the next couple of
days with isolated amounts near 2.5 inches. Most locations from
the Metroplex northward will see anywhere from a quarter of an
inch to an inch of rain through Thursday.

Widespread rain will continue into Thursday morning until 850-700
mb flow shifts out of the north, quickly shutting off
precipitation with isentropic descent. At this time, our short-
lived dry period will begin. Cloudy skies and strong northerly
winds on Thursday will make for the coldest temperatures this week
with highs generally in the 40s across the entire CWA.

Saturday, a cutoff low will move across the southwest U.S. and
will be responsible for our next round of active weather during
the second half of the weekend. A strong surface cyclone is
expected to eject off of the Rockies Saturday night. Ahead of its
attendant cold front, sufficient moisture and lift will allow
showers to form early Sunday morning. How widespread these Sunday
morning showers become will depend on the track of the low, which
remains disagreed upon at the moment. For example, the wetter
ECMWF is generally slower and further south with the placement of
the surface low than the drier GFS. While disagreement exists
early on in this sytem`s progression, guidance generally agrees
that the rain will come to an end for the CWA Sunday night. A
brief period of quiet conditions will be followed by another round
of active weather mid-week.



/00Z TAFs/

A deck of high cloud cover is streaming across North Texas this
evening, and all terminals are currently reporting VFR ceilings
at this time. A cold front is approaching the Metroplex sites, and
should result in FROPA around 00-01Z, and closer to 09Z at Waco.
Guidance attempts to develop showers across the northeast this
evening, but the activity should remain just east of the TAF

MVFR/IFR ceilings and reduced visibilities due to drizzle and
mist are expected at all sites overnight. The Metroplex sites will
return to VFR by late afternoon, but Waco will likely remain MVFR
through the forecast period. There will be a period of VCSH at all
Metroplex sites from around 13-18Z. Showers will likely continue
through the forecast period for Waco.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  55  43  52  40 /  20  40  20  40  80
Waco                59  60  45  51  41 /  30  60  50  70 100
Paris               51  55  40  52  38 /  30  50  20  20  60
Denton              47  54  40  52  39 /  10  30  10  40  70
McKinney            50  54  41  52  39 /  20  40  20  30  70
Dallas              53  56  43  52  41 /  20  40  20  40  80
Terrell             57  57  43  51  39 /  30  60  30  50  80
Corsicana           59  61  46  50  41 /  30  70  60  60  90
Temple              59  61  45  50  41 /  30  70  60  80 100
Mineral Wells       47  54  38  51  37 /  10  20  10  50  80





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion