NWS Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KFWD 280530
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/End Of The Week/

Our persistent Central CONUS upper trough will continue to pull
readily away to the east with an assist from the exiting strong
180 kt+ jet maximum headed for the northern GoM. A broad NE-SW
surface ridge axis will shift to the east as well with a return to
modest south or southeast winds around 10 mph returning by
afternoon. Though there will be a cool start to the day in the
upper 30s and 40s, the dry airmass in place will warm readily
under plentiful sunshine and strong insolation to between 65 and
75 degrees by mid afternoon. There will be some patchy dense fog
possible across the Colorado River Valley of far western Central
Texas into parts of the Big Country, but nothing that will last
long or require any advisory highlights around sunrise this
morning.

Strong ridging aloft will take hold tonight into early Friday as
an approaching shortwave helps to enhance surface pressure falls
to our west. Southerly winds will increase to between 15 to 20 mph
late this evening and overnight as low level warm advection
increases across the Southern Plains with a 40-50 kt LLJ likely
developing along and west of I-35 overnight. A few, mostly
transient mid level impulses transiting the ridge crest before
Friday morning will result in periods of scattered to broken high
cloudiness. This cloudiness, combined with the increasing
southerly surface winds and warm advection, will help keep Friday
morning lows capped in the 50s.

Friday looks quite windy and should be warmer despite scattered
to broken high clouds continuing to stream east across the
forecast area. Humidity will be on the increase as modified
moisture returns with dew point temperatures in the 50s surging
northward across the region. If not for the high clouds, it could
be warmer than the currently mid to upper 70s advertised for
afternoon high temperatures. Falling surface pressure across the
lee of the southern and central Rockies will combine with late
morning mixing to produce gusty southerly winds 20 to 25 mph with
gusts likely in the 35 to 40 mph range through the day. A Wind
Advisory will likely need to be issued in future forecasts for the
quite strong and very gusty southerly winds. No precipitation is
expected as a strengthening capping inversion will be occurring
over the region.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A mild end to the work week is expected Friday with highs in the
mid and upper 70s. Surface high pressure will have shifted to the
Southeast, with breezy south winds gusting mostly between 20-30
mph. The warming trend will continue into the weekend with
temperatures primarily topping out in the 80s each afternoon
through Monday as ridging remains centered along the Plains.

A pattern shift will then occur early next week, as an upper
trough drops south across the Western CONUS. Discrepancies among
guidance in the timing of the trough and its track/interaction
with a northern stream trough will impact where the surface low
develops across the Southern/Central Plains. Showers and storms
return to the forecast starting Sunday night, but the main chances
will be later in the day Monday with a dryline likely positioned
to the west and the arrival of a cold front Monday night. Ample
moisture should be in place in advance of this next system as
onshore flow over the weekend will bring widespread 60+ dewpoints.

Looking Ahead to the Eclipse: We`re now 12 days out from the Total
Solar Eclipse. Remember, these ensembles are under dispersed, so
the probabilities are not truly calibrated odds. And while still
outside of the official forecast period, here`s the latest:

-- GEFS/GEPS ensembles have trended slightly more pessimistic
  compared to yesterday, but only by about a ~10 percent change
  in mean cloud cover (meaning 30-50% of these members depict less
  than 25 percent of cloud cover). 30% of these members now show
  greater than 80% mean cloud cover.

-- Among all of the Euro, Canadian, and GFS ensemble members,
  about 1 in 4 show a notable signal for precipitation (at least
  0.1") across North and Central Texas. All other members show
  little or no precipitation with the majority of guidance
  depicting precip off to the east, similar to yesterday.

-- Current guidance is fairly similar to climatology in terms of
  the cloud forecast still. We will closely monitor the trends
  over the next 3-5 days, as this will be when the skill of model
  guidance will increasingly outweigh the skill of climatology. As
  we start seeing trends either towards being more pessimistic or
  more optimistic than climatology, that`s when we`ll be better
  able to hone in on what one could expect for Monday`s Eclipse
  conditions.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

No concerns with VFR expected through tonight across the D10
airspace. Light E-NE winds around 5 kts will gradually veer SE
10-15 kts by this afternoon with the eastward departure of the
surface high currently draped across the area.

A strong 40-50 kt LLJ will develop across the western half of the
airspace with a stratus surge remaining well west of all airports
by 12z Friday. However, a warmer and semi-coupled boundary layer
and tightening pressure gradient will result in S winds 15-20 kts
from late this coming evening into the morning hours Friday.

05/Marty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  72  55  77  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                43  73  53  77  59 /  50   0   0   0   0
Paris               41  67  49  74  57 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              40  71  53  75  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            41  70  53  76  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              45  72  56  76  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             42  69  52  74  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           46  72  54  78  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              44  73  53  77  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       41  73  53  78  57 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion