NWS Area Forecast Discussion
157
FXUS64 KFWD 170627
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1227 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across all of
North and Central Texas today due to breezy north winds and very
low humidity.
- A few sprinkles or snow flurries could be observed in parts of
North Texas during the daytime today.
- Seasonably cold temperatures are expected through early next
week, with rain chances of 20-30% returning to much of the area
on Wednesday and Thursday along with more mild temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Cold/dry advection continues early this morning behind our strong
cold front that swept through the area yesterday. Surface
dewpoints have fallen into the teens and single digits, and
efficient radiational cooling will allow much of the area to
begin the morning with subfreezing low temperatures. North winds
of 10-15 mph will also remain in place through the morning, and
this will yield wind chill values in the teens and lower 20s for
most of the CWA.
After sunrise, the primary trough axis associated with the
dominant Central Plains low pressure system will pivot overhead,
resulting in strong mid-level ascent and a band of frontogenetical
forcing across North Texas. At a minimum, this will result in a
rapidly expanding cloud deck which will remain in place for a
majority of the daytime. While the subcloud airmass will be quite
dry with dewpoint depressions of as much as 30-35C, model guidance
does depict wet-bulbing and top-down saturation sufficient to
lower cloud bases to as low as 4-5 kft AGL by mid-morning. With
such strong ascent present, some light precipitation should begin
falling, initially as virga, but could possibly reach the surface
as either melting snow grains or fine sleet pellets across parts
of North Texas where surface temperatures will be in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll include a mention of sprinkles and
flurries in the public forecast for areas roughly along and north
of I-20 from this morning through mid-afternoon. However, since
none of this precipitation will be measurable, PoPs will remain
less than 10%.
This afternoon, the focus will shift to fire weather concerns as
temperatures reach the 40s to lower 50s while breezy north winds
and very low humidity continue. Fire weather conditions will
become elevated, but the seasonably cold temperatures will
prevent the threat from becoming critical, and this will be
addressed with an area-wide Grass Fire Danger Statement.
Tonight`s lows will be some of the coldest of the season thus far
with widespread readings in the 20s, and a smattering of lows in
the teens in North Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
As low-level flow returns to southerly on Sunday, a quick warmup
will occur with very dry air warming into the upper 50s and 60s
beneath sunny skies. These more mild temperatures will be short-
lived however, as a reinforcing cold front sags into the area on
Monday. This will shave 5-10 degrees off of high temperatures both
Monday and Tuesday afternoon while also inhibiting any significant
moisture return from occurring. Low-level southerly flow will
strengthen again heading into the midweek period with widespread
low stratus and some rain showers returning both Wednesday and
Thursday. PoPs will be highest across East Texas, while parts of
western North Texas and the Big Country are likely to remain dry.
Additional cold frontal intrusions are expected during the second
half of the week, and perhaps again next weekend during the Day
8-9 time period when ensemble guidance depicts greater chances for
rainfall. Highs should remain close to seasonal normals through
the extended forecast period, with highs mostly in the 50s/lower
60s and lows in the 30s/40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
VFR/SKC conditions will prevail overnight before a quick
expansion of a mid-level cloud deck occurs across North Texas
around/after 12z. Overcast skies with cigs at 8-10 kft will then
prevail through most of the daytime with north winds of 10-15 kts
and occasional gusts of 20-25 kts. A few sprinkles may fall from
this cloud deck late this morning, but the likelihood of this
occurring at the airports is far too low to include precipitation
in the TAFs. Skies will gradually clear this evening, while winds
decrease in speed and veer more westerly overnight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 33 49 27 / 0 0 10 0
Waco 63 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 56 31 45 19 / 0 0 10 10
Denton 58 28 48 23 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 57 30 47 22 / 0 0 10 10
Dallas 59 34 49 26 / 0 0 10 10
Terrell 59 31 49 21 / 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 63 32 51 26 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 66 31 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 57 27 49 24 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
