NWS Area Forecast Discussion


045
FXUS64 KFWD 130040
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
740 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

With the southeastward departure of the mid-level low and the
eastward expansion of the mid-level ridge currently centered over
Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, the transition to drier and
hotter weather is well underway. Today`s peak temperatures were as
much as 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overall, the
forecast trends discussed below remain on track, and no
significant adjustments were needed with this evening`s update
other than to incorporate present observations.

With calm winds and lingering moisture in the lower levels,
patchy fog remains possible around daybreak across portions of
North and Central Texas (generally west/south of a Jacksboro to
Waco to Centerville line. Confidence remains low in any one
location experiencing dense fog however, so we will forgo the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory with this update. Any fog that
develops should dissipate within a few hours of sunrise.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Thursday/

This morning`s widespread showers and isolated storms that brought
heavy rain and flash flooding to portions of Central Texas have
finally dissipated. A few showers have developed in portions of
western North Texas, with a rather dense cumulus field evident
across nearly the entire area on visible satellite imagery. Given
we are still on the periphery of a departing upper level trough,
isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible across much
of the area through the afternoon. The potential for lightning
will remain low, but an isolated rumble of thunder can`t be
entirely ruled out. Fortunately, marginal deep-layer shear and
weak lift will keep any threat for severe weather very low, with
this activity dissipating by this evening.

Quiet weather is expected through the remainder of the period,
although we may have to contend with patchy fog early Thursday
morning. Otherwise, our warming trend continues tomorrow with
nearly all locations seeing afternoon temperatures in the low to
mid 90s with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/
/Thursday Night through Juneteenth/

Key Messages:

1) Warm/Hotter Temperatures through next week with Heat Index
values in the upper 90s and around 100 degrees.

2) Low rain chances return Sunday and continue through mid week,
in particular across East and Central Texas.

Upper level ridging anchored across West Texas/New Mexico will
expand across the state late this week keeping warm conditions in
place. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough will move north of us
through the Plains, sparking a few rounds of convection, but any
storms are expected to remain north or northwest of our area.
However, we will still have to keep an eye on the movement of any
evening convection as the evening and overnight low-level jet may be
able to excite convection along any boundaries that race ahead of
evening complexes of storms, potentially bringing storms near or
into our far northwest counties. Again, the potential for this is
pretty low at this time, and PoPs are not mentioned in the
forecast Friday or Saturday. Otherwise, through Saturday, high
temperatures will be in the 90s with heat index values a few
degrees above measured temperatures.

By Sunday, the upper level ridge anchors over the southeastern
CONUS, opening our region to deep southerly flow that transports
humid air from the GOM into our area. Humidity will increase as a
result, resulting in afternoon heat index values closer to and
around 100 degrees through the middle of next week. With increased
moisture, the upper ridge to our east, and southwest flow aloft,
daily rain chances are also in the forecast Sunday through
Wednesday/Juneteenth. Low rain chances start in our southeastern
counties Sunday afternoon, and then expand north across East
Texas Monday and Tuesday. Coverage of storms is expected to be
isolated to scattered, and the main hazards with any storms will
mostly likely be lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall that
could cause flooding/flash flooding. More widespread storms could
occur on Wednesday, but we are still well a ways out from next
Wednesday for any confidence around the middle of next week.

JLDunn


&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with light winds continuing to vary
from the E to SE. Any fog that develops overnight should remain
well west of the Metroplex TAF sites. Confidence in impacts at
KACT remain too low to warrant the inclusion of any mention of
fog with this issuance.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  94  74  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  92  72  92  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  91  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              69  93  70  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            69  92  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              72  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  91  69  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  92  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  92  72  94  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  93  71  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion