NWS Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KFWD 300008
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

Quiet and warm weather is expected to end the month of November,
with temperatures tonight and tomorrow well above the seasonal
normal. Additional moisture in the upper levels will move in
overnight from the upper low situated to the southwest and bring
in passing high clouds. Along with the increasing cloud cover,
gradual moisture advection from southerly flow throughout today
will only allow overnight lows to cool into the low and upper
40s.

Surface winds will become slightly more southwest tomorrow as
North and Central Texas becomes situated between a weak low
pressure meandering in the Texas Panhandle and high pressure in
the Gulf. Southwest winds and mostly sunny skies will mean high
temperatures should have no difficulty climbing to the mid and
upper 70s for areas west of I-35, and the low 70s for portions
east of the interstate. Other than the warm temperatures, Tuesday
is expected to be another enjoyable day.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 125 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Unseasonably warm temperatures and rain-free weather is expected
through the end of the work week across North and Central Texas.
High pressure centered over the southeastern US will allow for
gradual warming temperatures and increasing low level moisture as
southerly to southwesterly winds prevail over the next few days.
Highs in the low 80s are likely in some locations, especially
along and west of the I-35 corridor, which is roughly 15-20
degrees above-normal for early December.

Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures will return late Friday
night and into the weekend as the next upper level system
approaches. A shortwave trough should be near the TX/OK Panhandles
by Friday, resulting in increasing winds across our region. There
are some indications that rain may develop across parts of Central
Texas Friday afternoon, but kept a dry forecast for Friday until
there is better agreement. An attendant cold front will approach
North Texas sometime late Friday night or Saturday, with
rain/storm chances increasing across parts of East and Central
Texas on Saturday ahead of the boundary. There is still
disagreement among model guidance at this time, so I opted to
stick closely to NBM guidance for temperatures and precipitation
chances. Check back for updates as details are refined over the
next few days.

Garcia

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with south winds
10 kts or below and occasional high cloud passing overhead.

Gordon

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  75  52  75  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                45  75  51  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               44  72  47  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              43  75  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            44  74  49  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              48  76  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             45  73  49  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           46  73  51  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              43  75  50  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       44  77  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion