NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 142338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

/Through Saturday evening/

Well it was a hot one today. The high temperature reached 103 F at
DFW Airport and 105 F at Waco. As hot as these observed highs
were, neither broke a record (though we came close). This hot
weather comes to us as Texas and the Southwest remain beneath a
stout upper-level ridge of high pressure. While the 103 F was not
a record at DFW, this was the hottest temperature observed at DFW
Airport since July 26, 2018. The 105 F at Waco was the warmest
temperature observed there since the record-setting day of July
23, 2018 when the mercury hit 114 F.

Hot and dry conditions will continue for another day, with a near
repeat of today`s conditions expected on Saturday. The records at
DFW and Waco are 107 F and 105 F, respectively. DFW`s record will
likely be a little out of reach, but we could get very close at
Waco. This hot weather will come despite a weak cold front sliding
into North Texas during the day. This cold front however will be
little more than a subtle wind shift (a more significant cold
front is forecast to come through late Sunday, see long-term
discussion below). The only real question in the forecast is that
this cold front will have a bit of mass convergence along it,
which could act as a focus for convective development. Virtually
none of the guidance shows this happening though, and upper-level
subsidence will still be quite strong. Will carry "silent" 10%
PoPs, but not expecting much if anything at all. Hang in there,
North and Central Texas, some relief is coming... we just have to
wait another couple days.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 404 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/
/Sunday through Next Week/

The period starts more active as a mid Summer cold front works
its way into and through the region late this weekend and early
next week. Ahead of the front, hot weather should continue through
Sunday, therefore an extension of the Heat Advisory is likely
across Central Texas through Sunday afternoon, as high temperatures
remain between 103-105 degrees generally along and south of the
I-20 corridor.

A few isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms
are possible Sunday afternoon across North Texas. If storms are
able to develop earlier in the afternoon with the aid of peak
heating, the downburst potential will be high and a few damaging
wind gusts can not be completely ruled out ATTM. However, most of
the precip associated with this system will hold of until Sunday
night into Monday when stronger mid-upper level ascent begins to
move into the region. The overnight activity appears to be mostly
elevated and rooted in the mid levels, therefore a widespread
heavy rain, or even moderate rain, event does not appear likely.
The surface front should move through the region on Monday with
additional showers and thunderstorms possible across Central
Texas through Monday afternoon.

The temperature effects of the front should not be felt until
Monday when a northeast wind and cold advection behind the front
helps knock temperatures back down into the 90s, right around
seasonal norms. All precip should come to an end across Central
Texas by Monday evening, and unfortunately, that looks to be the
last good rain chances we have through much of the next week.

In the large scale, a high amplitude ridge will build over the
Western CONUS with a deep trough over the Eastern CONUS through
much of the next week. This should leave our region under nearly
pure meridional flow by mid week which will A) Create a stagnant
weather pattern and B) Keep the temperatures near seasonal norms
with little to no precip chances. A pattern shift is possible late
in the week into next weekend as the high to our west builds
further north. This will allow easterly flow aloft to prevail
over the Southern Plains and could allow increased rain chances
to move into the area from the east/southeast. Time will tell how
this pans out between now and then.



/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Winds are from the south
at 5-10 KT, but will back out of the east then northeast after
18Z at Metroplex TAF sites. Besides a few diurnally driven CU on
Sunday afternoon, skies should remain virtually SKC.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 104  81 101  76 /   5   0  10  20  30
Waco                79 105  79 104  76 /   5   5   5  10  30
Paris               75  97  76  95  72 /   0   0   5  10  20
Denton              76 103  79 100  74 /   5   0  10  20  30
McKinney            77 103  78 100  74 /   0   0   5  10  30
Dallas              82 105  81 102  77 /   5   0  10  10  30
Terrell             78 104  78 101  74 /   5   0   5  10  30
Corsicana           78 104  78 102  76 /   5   5   5  10  30
Temple              77 104  78 103  75 /   5   5   5  10  30
Mineral Wells       77 105  76 102  72 /   5   5  10  20  30


Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ100>103-

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095-104>107-

Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for

Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ156>158.




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion