NWS Area Forecast Discussion
369
FXUS64 KFWD 141101
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front is moving through the region at this time. Much
cooler temperatures are expected today compared to yesterday.
- The grass fire threat will remain elevated through most of this
week.
- Another cold front arrives late Tuesday and will bring even
cooler air to the region mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The cold front has now cleared all of the I-20 corridor as it
slowly moves southward. Winds behind the front have picked up
between 10-15 mph with a dry airmass filter in. Ahead of the
front, there continues to be southerly winds with slightly better
moisture in the air. The front will continue to progress southward
through the morning, clearing the rest of Central Texas later
today.
Beyond minor wind adjustments to account for the front`s position,
no additional changes were made to the previous forecast. Cooler
conditions compared to yesterday can be expected today. Temporary
warming will occur tomorrow before a much stronger cold front
arrives Tuesday evening/night.
Hernandez
Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/
After a record-setting Sunday across North and Central Texas, a
much welcomed cold front is moving across North Texas this early
Monday morning. At this time, the front is pushing through the
I-20 corridor, with a pre-frontal trough well ahead of the actual
front.
This cold front is ushering in much cooler temperatures with many
locations expected to be 20 degrees below yesterday`s readings.
Highs across North Texas will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s while
Central Texas stays in the mid to upper 80s.
With the depth of the front being fairly shallow and lee-side
cyclogenesis taking shape this evening, winds will quickly become
southeasterly to southerly tonight. This will allow for the front
to retreat northward as low-level northward mass advection takes
place. With the front shifting northward and south/southwesterly
winds making a comeback by tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will
quickly respond to the airmass change. Much of the region will
once again jump into the 90s with the hottest temperatures
expected to be across Central Texas.
As the surface low along the Front Range deepens, it will send a
cold front southward with its expected arrival to be closer to
sunset tomorrow. For more details regarding the next front, see
the long-term discussion below.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/
Update:
No major changes were necessary for the long-term forecast, with
the previous forecast discussion remaining more than reasonable
for what to expect through the mid-week into the upcoming weekend.
The second, much stronger cold front will push through the region
tomorrow evening. This will usher in the coldest air mass we have
had in the region since early to mid April. Afternoon highs will
quickly fall into the 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 40s
and 50s across all of North and Central Texas. A gradual warming
trend will take shape toward the end of the week, but temperatures
will remain seasonably cool. As for rain chances, the rest of the
week appears to remain quite dry. For more details regarding
potential rain chances over the upcoming weekend, please refer to
the previous forecast discussion down below.
Reeves
Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/
The CONUS will be split between an upper low over the Northeast
and a ridge over the Rockies at the start of the period. The
weather across North and Central Texas will continue to be
influenced mostly by the ridge, keeping temperatures 5 to 10
degrees above normal Monday night and Tuesday despite the recent
frontal passage.
A strong shortwave trough will rotate around the southern half of
the upper low Monday night and Tuesday, amplifying the upper
level pattern through the midweek period. This pattern shift will
deepen an upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard while
strengthening the ridge over the Rockies. The resulting flow aloft
and at the surface will push a strong cold front south through
the region Tuesday evening, dropping temperatures to more fall-
like values for the mid to late week period. Compressional warming
in advance of the front will push Tuesday`s high temperatures
into the 90s, followed by temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s
Tuesday night behind the front. Persistent cold air advection will
keep highs in the 60s and 70s on Wednesday.
A progressive upper level pattern will transpire late week into
next weekend, with the ridge shifting east to the Mississippi
Valley while an upper trough enters the West Coast region. A
gradual warming trend will be the result Thursday through
Saturday, but temperatures should still remain close to seasonable
values. Operational model guidance then differs with regard to the
evolution of the upper trough, between sweeping it across the
Plains as an open trough and cutting it off over the Desert
Southwest. These scenarios would produce different outcomes to the
local weather, with the progressive solution bringing much needed
rain chances next weekend, while the cut-off low would keep
precipitation off to our west. The 12Z model runs seem to be
leaning more towards the cut-off solution, which would support
lower rain chances. So, for the time being will go below the NBM
numbers for next weekend POPs.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Breezy north winds have developed across North Texas TAF sites as
the front has now moved south of the I-20 corridor. This will
continue through the rest of the morning with only FEW to SCT
mid-level clouds expected. Across Central Texas, the front has
yet to move through KACT, however, a pre-frontal wind shift has
now turned winds out of the NW. The front will move through KACT
in the next few hours, solidifying the northerly winds that will
continue through the rest of today.
The northerly winds will only be temporary as southeasterly winds
are expected this evening. Winds will remain southeasterly through
tomorrow morning before winds begin to shift yet again. A pre-
frontal wind shift will occur tomorrow afternoon ahead of our
next cold front which won`t arrive until Tuesday evening/night.
Hernandez
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 62 90 55 69 / 0 0 0 5 0
Waco 87 58 96 57 74 / 0 0 0 5 5
Paris 79 53 84 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 82 55 91 49 69 / 0 0 0 5 0
McKinney 82 56 90 50 69 / 0 0 0 5 0
Dallas 84 60 92 54 71 / 0 0 0 5 0
Terrell 83 56 90 51 70 / 0 0 0 5 0
Corsicana 87 60 95 55 72 / 0 0 0 5 5
Temple 90 58 97 55 74 / 0 0 0 5 5
Mineral Wells 84 55 94 51 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
