NWS Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KFWD 292354
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

An active evening of convection is underway from Southeast Texas
through the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, associated with an
upper trough currently traversing the Plains. Showers and storms
line up pretty well with the left exit and right entrance regions
of a 120kt subtropical jet just south and east of North and
Central Texas. This placement should shut off any convective
attempts across our forecast area as the cold front accompanying
the upper level storm system sweeps through the region tonight.

The front itself currently extends from northwest Texas
northeastward through southern and eastern Oklahoma, and has just
entered our northwestern-most zones during the past hour. A linear
extrapolation of the frontal position would bring it through the
I-20 corridor 9-10 PM. That being said, cold fronts tend to
accelerate at night after low level flow decouples, which could
bring the boundary through a little earlier than that. Also, a
pre-frontal trough will bring a shift to light northwest winds an
hour or two before the arrival of the cold front.

Strong and gusty north winds will accompany the frontal passage
along with a noticeable drop in temperature. A warm and pleasant
afternoon in the 70s will be replaced by widespread 30s and 40s
overnight. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing across
areas north and west of the DFW Metroplex by daybreak Wednesday.
The addition of gusty winds will yield widespread wind chills in
the 20s (remind the kids to bundle up before heading to school).
Despite the gusty conditions, it still looks like winds will be
just under advisory criteria, and we do not anticipate issuing one
at this time. Any upward adjustment in velocities, however, would
be cause to reconsider.

Winds will weaken during the day Wednesday, but cold air advection
should still be strong enough to offset insolation, keeping highs
in the 40s and lower 50s. Clear skies and light winds will then
allow temperatures to fall fairly quickly into the 30s Wednesday
night.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022/
/Wednesday Night Through Early Next Week/

Wind speeds should become relatively light Wednesday night,
setting the stage for a slightly colder night across North and
Central Texas, despite a gradual increase in cloud cover. A light
freeze can be expected for much of North Texas (excluding the
immediate DFW Metroplex) with the entire forecast area falling
into the low to mid 30s. Chilly weather will continue into
Thursday, with mostly cloudy skies keeping temperatures in the
50s.

Low-level moisture will begin to creep back into the region
beginning Thursday afternoon. Given the lingering cool air near
the surface, subtle warm, moist advection just above this cool
layer could result in the development of a few showers Thursday
afternoon. However, a more pronounced increase in moisture will
occur with the establishment of a nocturnal low-level jet
Thursday night into early Friday morning. The increase in
moisture, coupled with the return of modest southerly flow near
the surface, should result in slightly better coverage of warm-
advection showers on Friday. The greatest coverage is expected
east of I-35 where moisture will be the most abundant.

Following a brief warm-up on Friday, our next cold front is set
to arrive on Saturday, with cooler weather briefly returning to
the region. Given the shallow nature of this cold front,
relatively strong warm, moist advection just above the surface
should result in the development of overrunning precipitation.
This set up will result in off and on rain chances through the
weekend until our next strong cold front arrives early next week.
This should bring an end to our rain chances, as dry, cooler air
is ushered into the region behind the front.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Winds have already veered to the west and will shift to the north
this evening as a cold front pushes through. Fropa in the DFW
Metroplex should be 01-03Z and KACT 03-05Z. A pre-frontal trough,
however, will being a shift to northwest winds of around 10 kt at
DFW area airports in the next hour or so.

Strong and gusty north winds can be expected overnight into
Wednesday morning behind the cold front. Winds will shift to a
northeast direction during the day Wednesday with speeds dropping
to around 10 kt by midday. A continued veering will bring winds
around to the east Wednesday evening, with speeds dropping to
5-10 kt. Otherwise, conditions should remain VFR for the entirety
of the forecast period.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    36  53  37  54  49 /   0   0   0  20  20
Waco                38  55  36  57  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               34  51  33  52  45 /   0   0   0  20  30
Denton              32  52  35  53  46 /   0   0   0  20  20
McKinney            35  52  35  53  47 /   0   0   0  20  30
Dallas              37  52  37  53  49 /   0   0   0  20  20
Terrell             37  52  34  55  48 /   0   0   0  20  30
Corsicana           40  55  37  57  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
Temple              39  55  35  56  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
Mineral Wells       33  52  32  54  46 /   0   0   0  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion