NWS Area Forecast Discussion
185
FXUS64 KFWD 131100
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat indices will approach 100 degrees today and Wednesday, with
low storm chances (20-40%) mainly in Central/East TX each day.
- Additional scattered storms (20-60%) are forecast for western
North TX Wednesday night and Thursday.
- A cold front arriving Thursday night into Friday will bring
windy conditions Friday and notably cooler weekend temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
The large-scale pattern is becoming increasingly amplified with a
digging upper low/trough over the Great Basin and Intermountain
West while ridging persists near the northern Gulf coast. North
and Central Texas remains near the western flank of this ridge,
keeping meaningful large-scale ascent displaced well to our west
and northwest despite an increasingly moist atmosphere. Meanwhile,
continued pressure falls associated with lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado will maintain southerly low-level flow and a
moisture conveyor extending from the western Gulf through Texas
and into the Central Plains.
Another surge of shallow Gulf moisture early this morning will
result in widespread low clouds developing across much of North
and Central Texas toward daybreak. Persistent southerly flow,
increasing cloud cover, and continued warm advection will also
make for another unseasonably warm start this morning. Low clouds
will gradually lift and scatter through late morning and early
afternoon, allowing temperatures to again climb into the upper 80s
and lower 90s.
Despite the increasingly active weather expected across West
Texas and Oklahoma, widespread convection is not anticipated
locally today. The strongest forcing associated with the western
trough will remain displaced well to our northwest while North and
Central Texas stays beneath the downstream ridge. Instead,
afternoon convective development will be largely dependent on
mesoscale convergence and differential heating within an
increasingly moist and unstable environment. The richer low-level
moisture will remain across Central and East Texas where isolated
thunderstorms are most likely during peak heating, primarily east
of I-35. Otherwise, the combination of highs mostly in the lower
90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s will push afternoon
heat indices toward 100 degrees in some locations.
Any convection that manages to develop should diminish this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Farther upstream,
however, the strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will encourage
convection developing near the Southern Plains dryline and
frontal zone to expand across portions of West Texas and Oklahoma
overnight. This activity should largely remain northwest of our
forecast area through daybreak Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
The western upper trough will slowly advance east Wednesday as
the Gulf coast ridge begins to lose its influence over the
region. Deeper moisture will increasingly encroach upon western
North Texas, although the strongest large-scale ascent and
associated frontal forcing will remain northwest of our forecast
area. Away from this upstream activity, much of North and Central
Texas will remain within a moist and diurnally unstable
environment supportive of isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms, particularly near and east of the I-35 corridor.
Severe weather potential remains low with the best overlap of
instability, shear, and forcing located northwest of our area,
although a stronger storm cannot be ruled out across western North
Texas.
Rain chances will increase substantially across our far
northwestern counties Wednesday evening and persist into Thursday
as the upstream system slowly approaches. Most importantly, this
will not resemble the typical southeastward progression of rain
accompanying a steadily advancing cold front. Instead, a sharp
northwest-to-southeast PoP gradient will persist through much of
the day Thursday as the strongest large-scale forcing remains
displaced northwest of North and Central Texas. This means some
locations in our northwest may experience periods of showers and
thunderstorms while the remainder of North and Central Texas
remain largely precipitation-free. Meanwhile, the western trough
will begin interacting with a strong northern stream disturbance
diving southeast from Canada Thursday, amplifying downstream
troughing and finally sending a strong cold front south through
the Plains.
The front will sweep through North and Central Texas late Thursday
into Friday morning, although rain chances accompanying the actual
frontal passage may be fairly modest as the strongest upper-level
forcing lifts northeast. Gusty northerly winds behind the front
will usher in a substantially cooler and drier airmass, with highs
falling into the upper 60s and 70s this weekend and overnight lows
in the upper 40s and 50s. Cool and dry weather will persist
through the weekend before surface high pressure shifts east and
southerly flow gradually returns. Temperatures will begin
moderating late weekend into early next week, while a remnant
upper disturbance over the Southwest could eventually bring low
rain chances back to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
MVFR stratus has spread north into North Texas early this
morning, though coverage has been considerably more fragmented
than guidance had suggested. Ceilings near 1-1.5 kft will
therefore remain intermittent across portions of the Metroplex
through mid morning, with the greatest likelihood of prevailing
MVFR at KDAL/KGKY. KDFW/KAFW/KFTW should remain near the western
edge of the more persistent stratus, where periods of MVFR
ceilings are possible through around 17-18Z. Any remaining
ceilings should lift/scatter by late morning with VFR prevailing
this afternoon.
Southerly winds around 10-12 kts this morning will increase to
around 15 kts this afternoon, with occasional higher gusts
possible. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly
across Central and East Texas this afternoon. Confidence in a
direct impact at KACT remains too low for a VCTS mention, while
convection should remain well removed from the Metroplex
terminals. VFR will prevail this evening before another round of
MVFR stratus develops and spreads north late tonight. Ceilings
near 1-1.5 kft are expected to reach KACT and the D10 terminals
around 08Z/10Z respectively, and persist through late morning or
early afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 76 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
Waco 92 75 92 69 / 10 10 30 0
Paris 91 74 91 68 / 10 10 30 10
Denton 91 75 93 70 / 10 10 20 20
McKinney 90 74 91 69 / 10 10 20 10
Dallas 91 77 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
Terrell 91 74 91 68 / 10 10 30 0
Corsicana 90 74 91 69 / 20 10 30 0
Temple 94 74 93 69 / 10 10 30 0
Mineral Wells 91 73 93 69 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
