NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 292002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
302 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/
/Tonight through Friday Evening/

The blustery conditions will linger this afternoon before abating
slowly toward the evening. Cloud cover will slowly diminish as
the stacked low continues to exit to the east. With the loosening
surface pressure gradient and clearing skies, temperatures should
have no problem falling rather quickly. I`ve undercut tonight`s
low temperatures several degrees across the board, especially
given that overnight temperatures tumbled farther than thought
this morning even with the introduction of clouds at peak cooling.

After coordination with WFO Norman, have opted to issue a Freeze
Warning for central parts of the Red River Valley and down into
the northern portions of the Brazos River Valley. A couple of
notes about the Freeze Warning. 1) The urban heat island should
keep most portions of the Metroplex above 34 degrees, though a few
of the more rural spots could briefly dip down closer to 32.
2) While Montague County has already experienced its first
freeze, they were included in this warning for coordination
purposes and to better assist with Texoma and DFW media markets
messaging. The Freeze Warning is in effect from 4 AM to 10 AM
Friday morning.

While Friday will feature warmer conditions, we will still remain
8 to 12 degrees below normal for daytime highs. I expect that
afternoon readings will top out in the low to mid 60s.
Fortunately, wind chills won`t be quite as low thanks to the lower
wind speeds.



/Friday Night and Beyond/

Quiet weather will prevail through the long term period as zonal
flow aloft remains over the region. Halloween should be rather
pleasant with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s with temperatures
dropping into the 50s shortly after sunset.

A cold front will sweep through the area on Sunday, causing
breezy winds for much of the day. Precipitation is not expected
as moisture will be rather slim. Behind the front, cooler
temperatures will stick around through Monday until southerly flow
re-establishes itself Monday night. Moisture will begin to return
to the region towards the middle of the week, potentially allowing
morning stratus to make a reappearance.

An upper low will approach from the northwest towards the end of
the week and will likely bring our next chance for measurable
rainfall. Otherwise, typical early-November weather will rule for
much of next week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/
/18 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Cessation of strong northwesterly winds and MVFR cigs.

MVFR cigs continue this afternoon along with strong west to
northwest winds. The clearing line and VFR conditions extends from
near Abilene (KABI) up through Wichita Falls (KSPS). By mid to
late afternoon, I anticipate that D10 TAFs will be VFR with Waco
becoming VFR closer to sundown. Northerly breezes will subside as
the surface pressure gradient loosens with north winds under 8
knots becoming probable after midnight. Winds may be a tad
variable for the Friday morning push, but VFR will prevail.

There could be some MIFG, but the urban canopy for Metroplex
terminals should limit this potential. At Waco, winds just above
the surface may be enough to disrupt fog formation processes, but
the potential for MVFR BR will need to be reexamined given the
airfields close proximity to Lake Waco.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  61  42  71  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                38  63  41  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               35  61  40  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              30  61  39  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            34  62  40  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              40  62  45  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             36  62  40  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           39  62  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              37  64  40  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       31  63  39  74  43 /   0   0   0   0   0


Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ091-092-102-



NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion