NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 010959 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
459 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

Current forecast below still looks good with the only exception of
being an 1-2 hour delay for the cold front later this morning.
This will have little impact on high temperatures, RH, or trends


Previous Discussion:
/The Weekend/

After escaping the worst of the convective weather yesterday, a
brief reprieve is expected today with cooler and drier conditions
for your early weekend. Post-dryline winds tonight are around 10
mph from the west under mostly clear skies. A mid level impulse
moving across the Ozarks into the MS Valley later this morning
will result in a dry cold frontal passage this morning around
sunrise in North TX and around mid-late morning across Central
TX. Despite winds shifting north at 10 to 15 mph with some
gustiness and temperatures in the 40s/50s starting off your day,
a nice recovery is expected with temperatures in the 70s across
most locales this afternoon as winds veer northeast at 10 mph or

A broad surface high will slide into the Ark-La-Tex and Arbuckle
mountains in southeast OK by this evening with mostly clear skies,
light east winds, and temperatures dropping into the 50s and
lower 60s by midnight. The pleasant early spring weather doesn`t
last long unfortunately. We`ll quickly evolve into a regime
defined by strengthening low level warm advection in advance of
our next vigorous shortwave trough moving through the southern
Rockies and into the Southern High Plans. A few sprinkles may
occur across eastern Central TX overnight where richer moisture is
expected to be present. Meanwhile, increasing warm and moist
advection between the PBL and 850mb will result in a cloudy, cool,
and brisk start to your Sunday morning. Scattered elevated
showers and storms will begin developing and increasing through
late Sunday morning across western North TX, northwest into the
South Plains and up across Southwest OK.

With our main mid level disturbance arriving from the west after
midday, a surface warm front will attempt to lift north as far as
the I-20 corridor before impressive mid level height falls stall
it out. This is where the uncertainty comes in, as numerous
showers with scattered embedded storms are anticipated by Sunday
afternoon. We expect most of the activity to be "elevated" along
and north of this boundary, with possibly a brief window for
surface-based storms across eastern Central Texas and possibly
west of Highway 281. Either way, a few strong to severe storms
will be possible, even with the elevated activity thanks to deep
layer 6km westerly flow averaging around 50 kts and mid level
lapse rates increasing to > 8 deg C across much of the area. Right
now, surface-based or elevated, my main concern is with the
potential for some embedded supercells containing very large hail.
Otherwise, certainly some 50-60 mph convective wind gusts can`t
be ruled out with any brief, surface-based storms by Sunday
afternoon into the early evening hours east of I-35, as our
impressive shortwave starts to exit the area toward the MS River
Valley. Highs will average in the 70s, though some 60s along the
immediate Red River and north of the warm front are possible. On
the other side of the spectrum, couldn`t rule out a rogue reading
in the lower 80s where clouds partially clear late in the day
across far western North and Central TX.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 429 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023/
/Next Week/

Mid/upper-level flow will undergo significant amplification
Monday with zonal flow becoming increasingly southwesterly as
large scale upper-level troughing digs into the Great Basin/Desert
Southwest. A by-product of veering southerly-southwesterly flow
and attendant warm/dry advection from the higher terrain of
Mexico, a thermal ridge will begin to build into North and
Central Texas. Forecast 850 mb temperatures in both the NAEFS and
ECMWF are exceeding the 90th percentile of the historical
temperature distribution. Mixing to the surface during peak
daytime heating, this will translate to afternoon temperatures
soaring into the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The prospects for convection in the warm sector on Monday should
be limited by the warm advection occurring at the base of the
elevated mixed layer, weak forcing for ascent, and increasing
inhibition. However, the dryline extending through the western
fringes of our CWA retains the potential to provide enough low
level ascent to overcome the cap and create some chances for
showers and a few elevated thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail given the favorable thermodynamic environment. Have
added slight chance PoPs (less than 25%) beginning Monday
afternoon and continuing through the evening ahead of the
currently forecasted dryline position where inhibition is most
likely to at a minimum. A few deterministic solutions have shown a
minor QPF signal across portions of North and Central Texas
Monday but there remains a considerable amount of uncertainty
regarding rain/storm chances for this period.

Additionally, with warm, dry, and increasingly breezy/windy
conditions expected behind the dryline, elevated fire weather
conditions appear likely, mainly along and west of US-281 where
sustained southwest winds around 10-20 mph and critically low
afternoon relative humidity (below 20%) are most likely to
overlap. Anomalous, but sub-record high temperatures are expected
again on Tuesday under deepening southwest flow. Though rain/storm
chances continue throughout the day Tuesday ahead of the ejecting
shortwave and attendant large scale forcing, the other
significant talking point will involve the expanding and
intensifying fire weather risk as RH drops to 10-20% behind and
eastward mixing dryline amid gusty southwest winds. Depending on
where showers and storms occur Sunday and Monday, conditions may
become favorable for the growth and spread of wildfires generally
west of a Gainesville - Granbury - Lampasas line. The
aforementioned upper trough will begin to eject across the Plains
Tuesday, sending a cold front through the region late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

By late Wednesday, another upper level low will begin digging
into the Great Basin reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft. At the
surface, the recent frontal boundary will have settled and stalled
along the middle Texas coast or just offshore. Isentropic ascent
overtop of the cool near-surface layer will contribute to the
development of scattered (elevated) showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms possible through the end of the week. In stark
contrast to earlier in the week, temperatures behind the mid-week
cold front will be well below normal with highs in the 60s and low
70s and lows generally in the 40s and 50s.



/12z TAFs/

No major concerns. VFR with periodic high clouds through this
evening. Per latest observations and movement, I did delay FROPA
by 1-2 hours starting NW around 10 kts, then becoming NE by 20z.

A fast approaching mid level system early Sunday and a departing
surface high late tonight will veer surface winds to the SE
around 10 kts by 12z Sunday.

These winds will increase behind a warm front later on Sunday,
along with increasing chances for showers and storms, a few strong
to sever with hail that will occur beyond the scope of this



Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  54  75  63  90 /   0   5  80  10  20
Waco                75  53  80  64  90 /   0  10  70  10  20
Paris               69  48  73  59  85 /   0   5  80  30  10
Denton              71  50  75  59  90 /   0   5  80  10  20
McKinney            72  50  73  61  87 /   0   5  80  10  20
Dallas              74  54  75  63  90 /   0   5  80  10  20
Terrell             72  51  75  63  87 /   0  10  70  30  20
Corsicana           74  53  77  66  89 /   0  10  70  30  20
Temple              78  54  81  64  91 /   0  10  50  10  10
Mineral Wells       73  52  78  56  92 /   0   5  70   5   5




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion