NWS Area Forecast Discussion
630
FXUS64 KFWD 191815
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1215 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
across parts of western North Texas today. A Red Flag Warning is
in effect for Young, Jack, Montague and Cooke counties through
this evening.
- Near-normal temperatures will briefly return to the region this
weekend behind a cold front.
- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
The main concern in the short term will be the elevated to
critical wildfire threat that is expected to materialize today
across much of North Texas. A surface low currently in eastern
Kansas will continue to move east through the remainder of the
day. Surface winds are strengthening in response to the tightening
pressure gradient across the Southern Plains along with strong
vertical mixing. As a result, sustained northwest winds between
15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph are expected along and north of
US-380 this afternoon. Additionally, a swath of dry air is
currently pushing into the area from the northwest, which will
result in very low relative humidity (15-20%) this afternoon.
Given the dry and breezy conditions, a critical fire threat is
expected to materialize in our far northwestern zones where the
lowest humidity and strongest winds are expected. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for Young, Jack, Montague, and Cooke
counties. An elevated wildfire threat will exist for most of North
Texas and may also extend into western portions of Central Texas.
While our recent rainfall should somewhat offset the wildfire
threat, it appears we still have fuels that are dry, cured, and
susceptible to burning. Therefore, proper precautions should be
taken to prevent any grass fire ignitions, as any fires that start
would be difficult to contain.
Aside from the wildfire threat, downsloping from west/northwest
winds will result in a warm day across the region with afternoon
highs in the 70s to mid 80s. A cold front will move through the
region tonight, dropping temperatures into the mid 30s to 40s for
most areas. Mild weather is expected behind the front on Friday,
with highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Following our prolonged stretch of spring-like weather, more
seasonable temperatures will return this weekend with the arrival
of another cold front on Saturday. Moisture will remain negligible
behind tonight`s cold front, which will keep frontal passage
rain-free. Much of Central Texas will see highs in the low to mid
70s ahead of the front on Saturday, but by Sunday, it will feel
much cooler across the entire region. Afternoon temperatures will
only warm into the upper 50s to low 60s both Sunday and Monday. A
light freeze is expected in our rural western and northern zones
Saturday night and Sunday, with lows in the mid to upper 30s
elsewhere.
Southerly winds will return late Monday or Tuesday, resulting in a
rather rapid warm up heading into the middle of next week with
afternoon temperatures returning to the 70s and 80s. Tuesday and
Wednesday are shaping up to be warm, breezy, and dry, which should
allow wildfire concerns to re-emerge towards the end of the
current forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
VFR is expected through the period, with gusty northwesterly winds
this afternoon. Sustained speeds will be between 10-15 knots with
wind gusts will mostly be between 18-22 knots. The strongest
winds are expected to remain across North Texas.
The breezy winds will weaken to around 10 knots or less this
evening. A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift late this
evening, with 5-10 knot north to northeast winds expected on
Friday along with some mid and high level clouds.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 69 47 64 / 0 10 0 10
Waco 46 68 48 67 / 0 10 0 0
Paris 41 67 54 62 / 0 10 10 10
Denton 40 68 41 62 / 0 10 0 10
McKinney 40 68 45 62 / 0 10 10 10
Dallas 45 70 51 65 / 0 10 0 10
Terrell 43 68 52 66 / 0 10 10 10
Corsicana 46 69 54 69 / 0 10 0 10
Temple 49 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 40 70 44 63 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ091-092-100-
101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
