NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 250520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Overnight through Monday/

Mostly clear skies will continue for the rest of tonight with
southerly winds around 10 mph. The south winds will help keep
temperatures up several degrees over last night with most
locations dropping into the low/mid 50s by morning.

Well above normal temperatures will be the story for Sunday into
Monday as mid level ridging builds across northern Mexico and we
remain embedded within westerly flow aloft. With moisture
generally shunted eastward, the dry column will warm efficiently
under full sun both today and Monday. 850 mb temperatures will
climb above the 97th percentile today and near climatological
maximums on Monday. The downsloping westerly winds above the
surface will send temperatures soaring into the mid/upper 80s this
afternoon and to record levels (low/mid 90s) on Monday. In
addition, a weak dryline will move toward the I-35 corridor both
days, resulting in humidity values dropping to 15-20%. While
overall fuel moisture is in relatively good shape, fine dead fuels
will be susceptible to burning in the hot dry conditions. Expect
an increase in grass fire activity, particularly west of I-35 both
Sunday and Monday afternoons. No precipitation is expected through
the early part of the week.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
/Monday Onward/

The heat will be turned up on Monday as upper level ridging is
planted overtop the region and south-southwest flow persists.
Temperatures 500mb and 700mb are at least in the 90th climatological
percentile, with 850mb temps soaring to the 99th percentile.
Afternoon highs will peak in the 80s to low 90s. A dryline will
continue to bisect the region over the afternoon, keeping warmest
temperatures generally near and west of I-35. These temperatures are
15-30 degrees above normal for this time of year (we`re normally in
the 60s!). Make sure to stay hydrated if spending time outside on

By Tuesday, the upper ridge will have shifted slightly eastward in
response to a digging shortwave trough. However, Tuesday will still
be quite warm in the 80s region-wide as we`ll still be under the
influence of the ridge. Forecast high temperatures are on track to
tie/break record highs of 85/85 at DFW and ACT, respectively. In
addition to the heat, increasingly dry air west of the dryline and
occasionally breezy winds will promote an elevated fire weather
threat for areas near and west of I-35 both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. Avoid outdoor activities that could produce fire starts!

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to move across the
Central Plains on Tuesday, sending a strong cold front through the
region overnight into Wednesday morning. Most will remain dry with
this frontal passage, though isolated showers and storms are
possible after midnight along the front in our northeast counties (E
of I-35, north of I-20). Some storms during this time could become
strong with gusty winds and small hail.

The main impact with this front will be the steep difference in high
temperatures between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday highs will be
quite chilly compared to the previous days, only peaking in the 50s
and 60s. This is a temperature difference of around 15-35 degrees in
24 hours, sending us back to below normal for end of February.
Colder high temperatures for Wednesday was the biggest change to
this forecast package as the base NBM was way too warm compared to
other guidance, and was likely warmly biased. Hence, blended with
colder guidance to account for this.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected to continue through
Friday, before a warming trend over the early weekend. Morning
lows on Thursday will range from the low 30s to low 40s, with the
Red River region seeing best chances for freezing temperatures.
Looking deeper into cluster analysis, 44% of total members show a
colder solution, with best probabilities (40-70%) north of I-20
closer to the Red River. The biggest uncertainty on is exact
location of freezing temps and just how far south they make it at
this time. We`ll continue to keep an eye on guidance trends as we
go through the first portion of the week.

Isolated rain chances will return late Wednesday and Thursday with
the passing of another shortwave disturbance. Best chances will be
over the day on Thursday as the shortwave swings across the Southern
Plains. While the GFS was showing this solution this time yesterday,
it has substantially backed off. However, the Euro remains steady.
We`ll continue to promote low (20-30%) chances across the region
over Thursday. Precipitation should move W to E, eventually exiting
the region over Friday morning.



/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around
15 kt. Winds will veer more southwesterly late Sunday afternoon
with speeds decreasing to 5-10 kt. Otherwise, no significant
aviation concerns are expected through the period.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  85  56  92  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                51  82  60  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               52  78  56  85  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              56  85  51  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            56  82  54  88  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              57  84  58  91  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             53  80  58  87  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  82  61  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              52  84  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       49  89  52  94  64 /   0   0   0   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion