NWS Area Forecast Discussion
112
FXUS64 KFWD 091055
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry conditions are expected today and Friday with heat
index values near 105 degrees.
- Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday
through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
A weak upper level disturbance that had been hanging out across
the Ozarks and extending back into northeast Texas has finally
pulled away from the region allowing mid level ridging to build
back into North Texas. This will result in hot and rain free
conditions today and again on Friday with highs at or just above
100 degrees and heat index values near 105 degrees. Deep boundary
layer mixing and slightly higher wind speeds will allow dewpoints
to fall into the mid 60s during peak heating which should keep
heat index values at or just above the ambient air temperature.
The only exception to this may be across our northeast counties
where recent rainfall has allowed dewpoints to remain slightly
elevated. Heat index values may briefly top 105 degrees here this
afternoon. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected through
tonight with southerly winds remaining breezy through the
overnight hours into early Friday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
Hot and dry weather will continue Friday and Saturday as mid level
ridging expands but changes will be on the way for the latter half
of the weekend into early next week. Until then, high temperatures
at or just above 100 degrees will continue with heat index values
near 105. Ridging will expand and shift westward over the
Intermountain West by late Saturday which will allow troughing to
dig through the Central and Southern Plains by Saturday night. A
weak frontal boundary will also slide southward into the Plains
during this time and should serve as a focus for convective
development mainly to our north. In addition, we may see an uptick
in sea breeze convection to our southeast which may spread into
our far southeast counties late Saturday afternoon/evening.
With weak synoptic forcing for ascent spreading through the
Southern Plains late Saturday night, ongoing convection to our
north should spread south toward the Red River during the late
overnight hours into early Sunday. It`s a little uncertain how
much activity will be ongoing during this time, but the weak
frontal boundary should sag south toward the I-20 corridor during
the day Sunday. Moisture pooling along this boundary and continued
weak ascent atop an unstable boundary layer should result in a
quick uptick in convection during the day Sunday across much of
North Texas where we`ll have 30-60% PoPs. A moisture rich
atmosphere featuring fairly weak low and mid level flow should
favor slow moving thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Given the broad but continued synoptic ascent through
the overnight hours with little capping, convection may persist
well into the nighttime hours Sunday night beyond the normal
summertime diurnal convective cycle.
The weak frontal boundary and mid level trough will continue to
sag farther south on Monday with rain chances continuing primarily
along and south of I-20 where we`ll continue with 40-60% PoPs. As
we get into the middle part of the week, the mid level ridging to
the north will expand a bit farther south and should push the bulk
of the rain/storm chances well into Central TX. We`ll continue
with some 20-30% PoPs Tuesday into Wednesday mainly south of I-20.
While the threat for severe weather appears to be pretty low
during this time, we will have to monitor for some potential heavy
rainfall given a setup favoring persistent moisture transport into
North and Central TX and persistent synoptic forcing for ascent.
In an uncapped and unstable environment, we can often see bands of
training rainfall set up with little advance notice of location.
That being said, the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will feature some of
the higher rain chances that we`ve seen in a while along with
slightly cooler temperatures given the increased cloud cover.
Things will wind down toward the middle and latter part of next
week with temperatures climbing back above seasonal normals.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around
15 kt. No significant aviation concerns expected through the
period.
Dunn/Purlee
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 99 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 97 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 101 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 99 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 99 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 101 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
