NWS Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KFWD 250445
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Surface winds have been fairly slow to respond, despite a low
level jet that has developed between 2-3Kft this evening. Winds
have remained under control for the most part, with a south breeze
around 15 knots for much of the night. KFWS VAD wind profile shows
winds near 50 knots around 3000 feet, so will have to continue to
watch for any additional signs of LLWS. VFR conditions remain
through the night. Confidence remains low concerning MFVR ceilings
near Waco in the morning, so have left the entire area VFR at the
terminals.

Fox

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/
Westerly flow aloft tonight will become more southwesterly on
Tuesday in response to a developing upper trough across the Great
Basin and Central Rockies. The southwesterly flow aloft will bring
warm air off the higher terrain in northern Mexico which will
keep a cap in place through Tuesday afternoon. It will also aid in
the mixing of the dryline eastward through the day. The combination
of dry air and adiabatic warming from southwesterly surface winds
behind the dryline will result in a hot afternoon across North
and Central Texas with highs Tuesday in the lower and middle 90s
across the western half of the forecast area and mid and upper 80s
elsewhere. It will also be breezy Tuesday afternoon which will
elevate the fire threat, especially west of a line from Bowie to
Granbury to Goldthwaite where afternoon humidities will fall below
30 percent. Of course, the abundance of live vegetation will lessen
the fire threat.

The dryline will retreat Tuesday evening and low level moisture will
surge northward in response to deepening low pressure near the Four
Corners region. This will result in warmer temperatures Wednesday
morning and the return of extensive low clouds. The upper low will
move east through Oklahoma during the day Wednesday and open the
door for a cold front. A few warm air advection showers are possible
Wednesday morning with a better chance for showers and storms along
the front across the eastern zones Wednesday afternoon. Although
a few strong storms can`t be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, the
best large scale forcing and instability will be across East Texas
and eastern Oklahoma.

Large scale subsidence will temporarily build over the state
Wednesday night and result in a mostly clear sky with
temperatures falling back into the 50s by sunrise Thursday. The
cool and quiet weather will be very brief due to another
developing low pressure system which is progged to take shape
across the Central Rockies the latter half of the week.
Initially, this developing system will bring a return of low
level moisture and much warmer temperatures Thursday through
Friday. Storm chances during this time frame should remain low
due to a stout cap of warm air expected ahead of this system.
Since the surface low associated with this system will remain
across the western Texas Panhandle, it is unlikely that the
dryline will mix into the western zones which should keep most of
the thunderstorm activity west of the region. However, a few
storms may develop late Friday afternoon just south of the Red
River if the cold front in Oklahoma can get any type of
reinforcement from afternoon convection in that region.

Storm chances will increase Friday night through Saturday as the
upper low moves into New Mexico and a cold front crosses the Red
River. The large scale lift supplied by the approaching system
will weaken the cap. Storms Saturday will have plenty of
instability and shear to work with and will have a potential to
become severe. Where the cold front ends up will largely
determine what locations have the highest severe storm potential.

The upper low will lift northeast from New Mexico, across West
Texas and into Oklahoma Saturday night through Sunday which will
keep a good chance for thunderstorms across North and Central
Texas. Strong dynamics and favorable thermodynamics should be in
place so will maintain high PoPs across the entire region Saturday
night and Sunday. It does appear that storms will come to an
abrupt end from west to east Sunday afternoon with the passage of
a strong cold front.

Sunday night through Monday will be much drier and cooler as surface
high pressure builds over the state. Temperatures to start next
week will be near or below normal with lows mainly in the 50s and
highs generally in the 70s.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  87  70  77  51 /   0  10  10  10  10
Waco                61  87  70  83  50 /   5  10  10  10  10
Paris               57  83  67  73  46 /   0  10  20  50  10
Denton              60  88  66  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  10
McKinney            60  85  68  77  47 /   0  10  20  30  10
Dallas              63  87  70  78  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
Terrell             60  84  69  78  47 /   0  10  20  30  10
Corsicana           60  85  70  81  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
Temple              61  86  69  84  51 /   5  10  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       60  92  64  75  46 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/90

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion