NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 260019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Surface high pressure will continue to build east tonight and
result in a gradual return of south/southeast winds and a slow
increase in low level moisture. Since the moisture return will be
very gradual tonight, VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
through the night. Low level moisture will increase more rapidly
Sunday morning and MVFR ceilings will spread rapidly northward
after sunrise. All North and Central Texas TAF sites will see
ceilings lower through the afternoon with IFR conditions possible
by late afternoon, especially in Central Texas. Some light rain
will also be possible late in the TAF period but more likely
Sunday evening with the arrival of a shortwave trough.

A light east to southeast wind this evening will become southerly
Sunday morning with speeds increasing between 10 and 15 knots.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
We have had nice February weather today. After a cold start with
morning lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s across the region,
temperatures have risen into the 50s to around 60 degrees this

As a surface high that currently extends from northwestern
Missouri south-southwest into East Texas moves east tonight, light
mostly northeast winds will become east this evening and
southeast overnight. It will not be as cold as last night with
lows expected to range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s across
the region.

As a surface low that has developed over eastern New Mexico this
afternoon moves east into West Texas Sunday, the pressure
gradient will tighten across North Texas. A low level jet is also
expected to develop overnight which should start to advect Gulf
moisture northward, resulting in increased cloud cover from south
to north during the day Sunday. With strong warm advection expected,
some showers will be possible across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with the best chances being east of a Sherman to Killeen
line. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph by midday
Sunday and high temperatures will range from the lower 60s
northeast to around 70 degrees west.

As a shortwave moves across the Plains, a weak front is expected
to sink south to near/just south of the Red River overnight Sunday
night before becoming stationary and then lifting back to the
north on Monday. The GFS keeps this boundary north of the Red
River while the Texas Tech WRF, NAM and Canadian bring the front
south of I-20. The ECMWF stalls it out just south of the Red
River. They all lift the front back to the north Monday. There
will be increasing instability Sunday night which should result in
a chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of the forecast
area with the best chances of rain being east of I-35.

A dryline will push east toward the I-35 corridor by midday
Monday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop east
of the dry line. With capes of 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM Storm
Relative Helicity of 200-300 m2/s2...some severe storms will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening.

The dryline will retreat Monday night, setting us up for another
chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and night. A
cold front is expected to sweep southeast through North and
Central Texas overnight Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Dry
and cooler (near seasonal normal) weather is then expected
Wednesday through Friday. Low chances of rain should return
Saturday ahead of another shortwave.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    41  65  55  78  60 /   0  20  40  30   5
Waco                39  66  57  78  59 /   0  40  40  30  10
Paris               34  60  49  71  57 /   0  40  70  40  10
Denton              36  62  52  76  57 /   0  20  40  20   5
McKinney            34  62  53  75  58 /   0  30  50  30  10
Dallas              42  64  56  78  61 /   0  30  50  30  10
Terrell             38  64  55  76  60 /   0  40  60  30  10
Corsicana           40  66  58  78  61 /   0  40  60  40  10
Temple              40  66  58  78  59 /   0  40  40  30  10
Mineral Wells       39  67  50  78  54 /   0  10  20  10   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion