NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 250745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
245 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

/Today and Tonight/

As the upper level storm system pulls away from the region, North
and Central Texas will commence a drying trend as mid-level
heights increase and dry air filters in. The once exception will
be across the far northeastern counties, where remnant wrap-around
moisture and slightly better forcing for ascent will lead to low
rain chances through the morning hours.

By the afternoon, all of North and Central Texas will experience
clear to mostly clear skies, as well as northerly to northwesterly
winds. A weak cold front will be sliding in from the north, but
other than reinforcing the northerly winds in place, there will
not be any other substantial sensible weather changes. Highs
today will range from the 80s in the west to mid 70s in the east.
The warmest overnight low temperatures will remain centered
across Central Texas as temperatures are likely to reach the
upper 50s before the cold front reaches that area. For North
Texas, lows in the lower to mid 50s are expected.



/Friday through Wednesday/

Dry northwest flow aloft and veering low level winds will result
in a pleasant day Friday with abundant sun and light winds. High
temperatures will steadily warm into the middle and upper 70s.

Low level warm air advection will begin to ramp up Friday night
and Saturday ahead of developing surface trough and cold front
across the Central Plains. As a result, it will be breezy, warmer
and more humid with morning lows Saturday from the middle 50s to
around 60 and highs in the 80s.

The cold front is progged to cross the Red River Saturday night
while a fast moving shortwave moves east out of the Central
Rockies. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop generally
north of the I-20 corridor, along and north of the cold front.
Any precipitation that does develop will be brief and end once the
shortwave trough exits to the east before sunrise Sunday.

The cold front will lift north of the Red River Sunday in response
to another developing Central High Plains surface trough. This
developing system will bring increasing southerly winds and
seasonably warm temperatures through Monday with highs in the
lower and middle 80s and lows in the 60s.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will return to the northwest zones
Monday night with the arrival of another weak cold front.
Thunderstorm chances will increase across the entire region
Tuesday and Wednesday when a strong upper trough develops in the
west. Although this system is forecast to take a northern track
across the Central states, multiple shortwaves will translate
across the region while the dryline makes a run at the western
counties each afternoon. It appears as if instability, moisture
and lift will all be present for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
It is too early to assess the severe potential with any accuracy,
but based on the pattern, would not be surprised if some storms
get a little rowdy. It is spring in North Texas after all.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be seasonably warm with
highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1138 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/
/06Z TAFs/

The latest water vapor loop shows an upper low now lifting
northeast across North Texas near the Red River. Precipitation has
exited the region to the east with only a few light Radar echoes
showing up across North and Central Texas. There may still be
additional showers overnight associated with wrap-around moisture
and lift, but significant convection is not expected. At the
surface, a relaxed pressure gradient and the resulting light winds
behind a weak cold front will allow shallow moisture to linger.
This will lead to periods of borderline IFR/MVFR conditions to
occur through the night. These conditions should end around
sunrise as the upper low exits to the northeast and the pressure
gradient tightens. Northwest winds around 10 kt and VFR conditions
are expected area-wide on Thursday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  56  78  59  84 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                80  57  76  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  52  75  55  79 /  40   0   0   0   5
Denton              79  53  75  58  83 /   5   0   0   0   5
McKinney            78  53  75  57  81 /  10   0   0   0   5
Dallas              80  56  77  60  84 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  54  76  56  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78  56  76  57  81 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              81  58  77  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       80  54  76  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion