NWS Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KFWD 140931
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

The regional radar mosaic continues to show persistent deformation
banding extending from the Hill Country into southern Oklahoma
early this morning. Surface temperatures have generally remained
in the mid/upper 30s across western areas, and KDYX Correlation
Coefficient data suggest some mixing/changeover to a wet snow has
occurred at least across parts of Eastland and Stephens Counties.
Elsewhere, a lack of adequate diabatic cooling has kept
precipitation as primarily rain, with perhaps some occasional
mixing of snow. With precipitation intensity not expected to
increase much further, and upstream temperatures in the upper 30s
to near 40, do not think any significant expansion of snowfall is
probable this morning. Therefore, have canceled the Winter
Weather Advisory everywhere, except for Eastland and Stephens
Counties (where a few brief moderate/heavy bursts of snow could
cause quick localized impacts this morning). Regardless, any snow
potential should come to an end by mid morning.

As the low-level cyclone develops farther east towards the lower
Mississippi Valley through the morning and into mid-day, the
western band should weaken/diminish, while a secondary corridor of
precipitation will likely blossom across parts of East and North
Texas. This precipitation is expected to be entirely rain, though.

As for winds, while they have been slow to increase this morning,
strong mid-level height rises shifting eastward across the region
will enhance the low-level pressure gradient over the next several
hours. Indeed, winds have begun to increase across parts of the
I-35 corridor and this trend is forecast to persist.
North/northwesterly winds around 20-30 mph sustained, with gusts
upwards of 30-40 mph, are still expected to expand in coverage
across the ongoing Wind Advisory this morning. They should then
weaken some later today, but could remain gusty into the evening
hours.

Skies are then expected to clear from west to east later this
evening into tonight, as the entire system shifts off to the east
and drier air works its way across the region.

Picca

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday Through Next Week/

After a seasonal but chilly morning, abundant sunshine and low
humidity will result in near normal high temperatures Saturday
afternoon with light northwest winds. The core of the surface
high behind Thursday`s cold front will finally settle into the
region Saturday night, which will be the most effective
radiational cooling setup of the week. Low-lying areas will plunge
into the 20s early Sunday morning with a heavy frost, but the vast
majority of North and Central Texas should remain above freezing.
The flow aloft will deamplify on Sunday, but the warming trend
will continue with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 60s.
Clouds will increase late in the day as a mid-level impulse skirts
the Red River. The lowest 3 miles of the atmosphere will remain
bone dry, and no precipitation will accompany the disturbance.

Light winds at the surface will keep nights on the cool side, but
the mild daytime temperatures will continue early in the upcoming
workweek. Tuesday may be the warmest of the lot as south winds and
Gulf moisture return. At that time, our next rainmaker will be
digging into the Desert Southwest, its downstream clouds reaching
North and Central Texas late in the day on Tuesday. Although there
are significant differences among available guidance with respect
to the strength and placement of the upper low on Wednesday, there
remains a decent consensus with the timing of the trough axis. The
best moisture will be confined to the Texas Coast, which should
limit the rainfall totals deeper inland. Will place the higher
PoPs across Central Texas on Wednesday.

The midweek system will be of Pacific origin, and its passage
won`t usher in much in the way of cold air. In fact, sunshine and
low humidity will allow daytime temperatures late next week to
remain above normal. The unseasonably mild weather will continue
into the first weekend of astronomical winter.

25

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1136 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018/
/06z TAFs/

Spotty -RA or -DZ BR will persist this evening across the TAF
sites while the steadiest precipitation shifts off to the north
and west. MVFR cigs around FL010-012 will prevail, but periodic
dips to IFR appear likely at least for the next few hours in the
Metroplex, and probably through daybreak at Waco. Surface winds
have refused to respond much to the increased pressure gradient,
and have toned down the sustained speeds and gusts in the latest
set of TAFs. Still anticipating gusts to more homogeneously pick
up overnight to around 30-35 kts, however. As the core of the
upper-low pivots south and east of the region on Friday morning,
rain chances will pick up once again in the Metroplex before
drier air begins to build into the region through the afternoon
hours. It looks like all TAF sites will remain squarely socked in
with low-MVFR cigs through the afternoon and early evening, but
VFR conditions should return to the Metroplex 15/05z, and a few
hours later at Waco.

Evening model guidance continues to indicate that temperatures
will remain too warm for any -RASN potential in the Metroplex and
Waco.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  35  58  37  62 /  80   5   0   0   0
Waco                48  37  59  34  64 /  60   0   0   0   0
Paris               51  36  55  38  59 /  90  30   0   0   0
Denton              47  33  58  33  62 /  80   5   0   0   0
McKinney            48  36  56  34  59 /  90  10   0   0   0
Dallas              48  37  58  36  62 /  80  10   0   0   0
Terrell             50  37  58  36  61 /  70  20   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  38  56  38  60 /  70  10   0   0   0
Temple              47  36  60  36  64 /  40   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       46  32  58  33  63 /  70   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ115-
129.

&&

$$

11/25

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion