NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 212328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
628 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

/00z TAFS/

Little operational impacts are expected during the valid TAF
period with VFR conditions prevailing. The winds should remain out
of the south over the next 24 hours, veering to the southwest in
the early morning hours with speeds generally between 8-12 kts.

An item to keep an eye on tomorrow will be a shortwave trough
helping to develop thunderstorms along a weak surface front to
our northwest tomorrow afternoon/evening. Hi-Res CAM guidance is
suggesting an outflow will move into North Central Texas tomorrow
night, however it is not expected to reach any of the terminals
until the 05-07Z timeframe...if it even makes it to the Metroplex.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 219 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/
/Through Tonight/

A tranquil evening and overnight period is in store for North and
Central Texas, as a stout upper level high remains centered over
the region. A subtle weakness in the mid-level height field,
located over the Texas Panhandle, may support a few high based
storms over the Panhandle and NW Oklahoma over the next several
hours. However, none of this activity should penetrate the zone
of subsidence farther east over North Central Texas. Farther east,
where deep moisture is more plentiful, isolated showers remain
possible over Northeast Texas, including our far eastern zones,
through sunset. However, believe the odds of anyone actually
getting rain are low enough to preclude mention in the point and
zone forecasts.

The scattered afternoon cumulus cloudiness across much of the area
should dissipate by sunset, leaving mostly clear skies and
relatively warm conditions overnight. Lows just about everywhere
should dip into the upper and middle 70s, except in the core of
DFW urban heat island, where lower 80s will likely hang tough



.LONG TERM... /Issued 219 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/
/Thursday onward/

We will have one more day of strong upper-level ridging on
Thursday. This ridge should keep a lid on precipitation chances
for most locations. A weak shortwave trough will move across
Kansas and Oklahoma late Thursday, which could result in some
isolated showers/thunderstorms near the Red River (have indicated
slight chance PoPs here), but otherwise, most of us will remain
rain-free, and hot. That said, the ridge will relax ever so
slightly, so we should stay well below Heat Advisory criteria,
thus the Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire this evening.

Friday through Monday will feature north to northwesterly flow
aloft. This flow pattern may allow some of the typical, late-night
convective complexes that prowl the Great Plains this time of the
year to make a run at our northern counties. In addition, the
ridge will retrograde to the Desert Southwest, which will reduce
the subsidence over us a bit. This combination will mean our
highest PoPs through the forecast period, but even then, we`re
still looking at 30-50 percent chances for most locations. Most of
us will not see much rain, if any at all, with area-averaged
accumulations across North and Central Texas expected to remain
light. A few lucky souls may see a half-inch perhaps wherever an
isolated thunderstorm gets going, but the vast majority of us will
see little rain. Put another way, this will certainly not be a
drought-busting rainfall (not even close).

Heading into next week, the ridge will reassert its authority over
Texas, bringing more heat. Temperatures will probably be a few
degrees above normal, and we will probably have a few more shots
at 100+ F Monday through Wednesday. Dewpoints will still be in
the mid to upper 60s during the heat of the day, so we will
certainly need to watch for potential Heat Advisory criteria.

Just beyond the official forecast period, both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate a pattern shift towards the end of next week, but they
have some significant and important disagreements on the details.
The GFS has a highly-amplified upper-level trough deepening over
the interior CONUS. This trough amplification would act to push a
cold front south through our entire county warning area, with
below normal temperatures (and dewpoints down into the 50s!) in
its wake. This solution would lead to a very pleasant Labor Day
weekend. The ECMWF on the other hand does show the trough
amplification, but is not quite as bullish, and in fact, doesn`t
have much in the way of a surface cold front. It does however show
some increased rainfall potential, which could perhaps offer some
relief from the heat, but it`d still be pretty humid. While the
rain would be welcomed, the GFS`s milder and drier solution is
probably the one most are "rooting" for. The simple truth is, this
is still over a week out, and the details for any possible cold
front or rain chances are still very fuzzy. For what it`s worth,
CPC continues to advertise increased chances of below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation during the period from
August 28 to September 3, and in fact, they have bumped up their
probabilities a bit in the most recent forecast issuance.

The bottom line is, Labor Day weekend probably won`t feature
particularly oppressive heat, and in fact, there`s some potential
for it to be quite nice. If the nicer, cooler, drier solutions
don`t pan out, fear not, for Autumnal Equinox is just over a month
away (September 23).



Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  79  98  78 /   0   0   5  10  10
Waco                78  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               75  94  75  94  73 /   0   0  20  30  20
Denton              78  98  78  97  77 /   0   0  10  20  20
McKinney            77  97  77  97  76 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dallas              80  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   5  10  10
Terrell             77  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   5  10  10
Corsicana           76  98  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              76  98  75  97  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       75  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   5  20  10


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion