NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 260927

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
427 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The leading edge of an MCS is maintaining its intensity as it
surges south through the Permian Basin. The 850mb inflow has
little if any easterly component, and the complex has made
minimal progress to the east overnight. However, the impulse
responsible for the activity can be discerned by the showers
across Northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. This approaching
lift, combined with any remnant vorticity/weakness the more
vigorous convection may leave in its wake, may result in renewed
shower/thunderstorm development later today, mainly across our
western and southwestern zones. In addition, the persistent col
to our southeast, which continues to impinge on our southern and
southeastern zones, should result in a near seamless transition
between the ongoing morning showers and deeper daytime convection.
The one area that will likely remain free of precipitation today
will be the (relatively) dry column above our northeast zones,
which has yet to recover from this weekend`s frontal intrusion.

With weakening 850mb flow, a repeat MCS is unlikely tonight into
Tuesday morning. However, with northwest flow prevailing above
rich tropical moisture, it will not take much of a ripple to
result in some nocturnal showers. Although sunny skies will be the
rule on Tuesday, as this moist (largely uncapped) boundary layer
warms further on Tuesday, a few showers and thunderstorms may
occur. The best chances will be south of I-20 where the deepest
moisture will reside. It is looking more likely that the
persistent convection along the Texas coast will result in a
veritable mid-level trough by mid-week. This would favor ridging
into North Texas and force the westerlies to retreat to the north.
While this would bring an end to the precipitation for much of the
region Wednesday, our southeastern zones would continue to
experience sea-breeze-like activity invading during the afternoon
hours. With ridging primarily to the west, troughing may seep
northward across East Texas, and the convective potential will
enhance in our eastern zones Thursday and Friday.

Extended guidance still wants to allow a front to dive deep into
the Southern Plains this coming weekend. There continues to be
remarkably good run-to-run and inter-model agreement. Regardless
of the outcome, the boundary is unlikely to reach the Red River,
but its proximity may allow for some showers and thunderstorms
north of the I-20 corridor Friday night or Saturday. Thereafter, a
sudden shift to mid-summer occurs, with subtropical ridging
dominating the remainder of the weekend and into Independence Day.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1153 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

A complex of thunderstorms continues to move southeast across the
Texas Panhandle tonight but is not expected to track into North
and Central Texas mostly due to a weakening wind field ahead of
the system overnight. Most model guidance continues to diminish
the system before it reaches a Comanche to Bowie line. Better
chances for showers and storms at all the TAF sites exist Monday
afternoon as a disturbance moves into the area. Coverage is
expected to remain isolated to scattered and will keep the VCTS
mention starting at 17-18Z due to decent agreement between the
weather models. Lightning and gusty winds will be the main
hazards. Most of the activity should diminish in the evening
hours, but some convection may linger in Central Texas, and a VCSH
or VCTS may need to be extended longer at KACT.

DFW Airports: An expanding area of VFR cigs with bases around 4-5
kft will likely prevail for the next several hours. Some MVFR
cigs are expected Monday morning to the west of the TAF airports
and may potentially slide east into the DFW Metroplex after 12Z.
KAFW and KFTW have better chances of being impacted by MVFR cigs
with diminishing chances to the east. Any MVFR cigs in the
Metroplex are expected to be between 2-3 kft, and VFR conditions
are expected through Monday night with possibly additional MVFR
status Tuesday morning.

Waco Airport: There remains a low chance for isolated showers
through the overnight period around KACT, but the coverage and
chance is too low to mention any convection in the TAF during the
overnight hours. MVFR cigs are likely to affect KACT Monday
morning, and the onset time of MVFR cigs continues to be challenging.
There isn`t strong evidence at this time to suggest a deviation
from the 00Z TAF and kept the arrival time around 12Z. However,
will monitor trends overnight as the arrival time could be as
early as 09-10Z. A short period of cig bases between 1-2 kft is
possible between 12-16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
Monday afternoon and evening.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  72  90  73  92 /  20  10  20   5   5
Waco                88  72  90  72  92 /  40  20  40  10  10
Paris               86  68  89  69  90 /  10   5  10   0   5
Denton              86  68  90  71  91 /  20  10  20   5   5
McKinney            87  68  90  71  91 /  20  10  20   5   5
Dallas              88  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  20   5   5
Terrell             88  70  90  71  91 /  20  10  20   5  10
Corsicana           88  72  89  72  91 /  30  10  30   5  10
Temple              87  71  88  70  90 /  40  20  40  10  10
Mineral Wells       84  69  89  70  92 /  40  20  20   5   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion